January 30, 2025
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Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a U.S.-backed truce ending a 13-month border conflict that escalated into war with Hezbollah in September. President Joe Biden announced from the White House that the deal aims for a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” effective Wednesday at 4 a.m. local time.

The Deal:
The ceasefire enforces a 60-day halt to hostilities, requiring Hezbollah to retreat 25 miles from the border and Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanese soil. Based on the 2006 UN Resolution 1701, Lebanon will tighten control over Hezbollah’s activities south of the Litani River, monitored by the UN, Lebanese military, and an international committee. Israel warns of swift retaliation for any breaches.

Will It Hold?
The truce offers a break for war-weary civilians—Lebanese devastated by Israeli airstrikes and Israelis enduring relentless Hezbollah rocket fire. However, any violation risks reigniting the conflict, jeopardizing U.S.-led diplomacy.

Impact on Gaza?
The deal is unlikely to influence the Gaza conflict, experts say, as ceasefire talks there remain stagnant. “A Lebanon agreement means nothing for Gaza,” noted HA Hellyer, a security expert at RUSI.

This fragile truce may offer temporary calm, but the region remains a powder keg.